MOGADISHU, Somalia – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu on February 27, 2025, to meet with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud marks a critical juncture in the fraught relationship between the two Horn of Africa neighbors.
The trip, ostensibly aimed at fostering bilateral cooperation, comes against the backdrop of a diplomatic crisis sparked by Ethiopia’s controversial January 2024 announcement to lease a stretch of coastline in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland.
This move, which included plans to build a naval base and commercial port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence, sent shockwaves through the region and drew fierce condemnation from Mogadishu.
Abiy’s visit, therefore, raises pressing questions: Is this a genuine effort to mend ties, or a face-saving maneuver to salvage Ethiopia’s regional standing?
The Geopolitical Backdrop
The Horn of Africa is a region defined by its strategic significance and chronic instability. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 120 million people, has long sought reliable access to the sea to bolster its economic and security interests.
The Red Sea coastline, a vital artery for global trade, has been a focal point of Ethiopia’s foreign policy under Abiy Ahmed. However, Ethiopia’s overtures to Somaliland—a self-declared independent region not recognized by the international community—have exacerbated tensions with Somalia, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory.
The January 2024 announcement was a bold but risky gambit by Addis Ababa. By engaging directly with Somaliland, Ethiopia not only challenged Somalia’s sovereignty but also risked alienating other regional actors, including the African Union (AU) and the Arab League, both of which have consistently upheld Somalia’s territorial integrity.
The move also drew criticism from Western powers, who fear that such unilateral actions could destabilize an already volatile region.
The Ankara-Mediated Talks
In December 2024, Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to resolve their dispute through talks mediated by Turkey, a key player in the region with growing economic and military ties to both nations.
The Ankara talks resulted in a pledge to find “commercial arrangements” to ensure Ethiopia’s “reliable, secure, and sustainable access to and from the sea.” While the agreement was hailed as a step toward de-escalation, it left many questions unanswered, particularly regarding the status of Somaliland and the specifics of Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions.
Abiy’s visit to Mogadishu follows a series of high-level engagements between the two countries. In January 2025, President Mohamud visited Addis Ababa, signaling a tentative thaw in relations.
Days before Abiy’s trip, an Ethiopian delegation led by Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, the country’s military chief, and Redwan Hussein, the intelligence chief, met with Somali officials in Mogadishu.
The two sides signed an agreement securing the participation of Ethiopian troops in the new African Union mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), a move seen as a confidence-building measure. They also agreed to begin technical negotiations by the end of February, further underscoring the urgency of resolving their differences.
Cooperation or Cosmetic Diplomacy?
Following their meeting, Abiy and Mohamud issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to “strengthening cooperation for mutual benefit.” While such rhetoric is standard in diplomatic communiqués, it remains to be seen whether it translates into tangible progress.
Critics in Mogadishu have dismissed the visit as a “diplomatic dance” and a “strategic blunder,” arguing that Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland has irreparably damaged trust between the two nations.
Many in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa, have also expressed skepticism, viewing the visit as a betrayal of their aspirations for independence. Reports of a potential meeting between Abiy and Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro have done little to assuage these concerns.
Great Power Competition
Abiy’s visit to Mogadishu must be understood within the broader context of regional and global geopolitics. The Horn of Africa is increasingly becoming a theater for great power competition, with countries like Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and China vying for influence.
Ethiopia’s alignment with Somaliland has the potential to redraw regional alliances, particularly if other nations follow suit in recognizing its independence. Such a scenario would have far-reaching consequences, not only for Somalia but also for the AU’s principle of territorial integrity.
For Ethiopia, the stakes are equally high. Abiy’s government is grappling with internal challenges, including ethnic tensions, economic instability, and the fallout from the Tigray conflict.
Securing access to the sea is not just a strategic priority but also a domestic imperative, as it would bolster Ethiopia’s economic prospects and enhance its regional clout.
However, the Somaliland gambit has come at a cost, straining relations with key partners and undermining Ethiopia’s reputation as a stabilizing force in the region.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu represents a delicate balancing act between diplomacy and realpolitik. While the joint statement and recent agreements suggest a willingness to de-escalate tensions, the underlying issues remain unresolved. Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland continues to be a major point of contention, and any lasting resolution will require addressing Somalia’s sovereignty concerns.
Ultimately, the success of Abiy’s diplomatic efforts will depend on whether both sides can move beyond symbolic gestures and forge a mutually acceptable framework for cooperation. In a region as volatile as the Horn of Africa, the margin for error is slim, and the consequences of miscalculation are profound.
Whether this visit marks the beginning of a new chapter in Ethiopia-Somalia relations or merely a temporary reprieve remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the diplomatic dance between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu will have far-reaching implications for the future of the Horn of Africa.
Abdirahman Jeylani Mohamed is a foreign policy journalist and communications specialist. X (Twitter): @JaylaaniJr
