By Abdirahman Jeylani Mohamed
On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made a dramatic return to the frontlines in the war against Al-Shabab militants. The move, framed by his administration as a show of leadership and resolve, was nearly upstaged by a brazen assassination attempt.
As the president’s motorcade headed to the airport, a powerful blast—claimed by Al-Shabab—rocked the convoy, killing at least 10 people, including presidential guards, and wounding several others.
The attack, a stark reminder of the militant group’s reach, raises urgent questions about the effectiveness of Somalia’s counterterrorism strategy and the true motivations behind the president’s high-profile visit to the battlefield.
A Deadly Pattern
The timing of the attack is no coincidence. It comes just weeks after the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu issued a warning about potential terrorist attacks in the capital, underscoring the precarious security situation.
Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda-linked group, has proven remarkably resilient, adapting to military pressure and exploiting local grievances to maintain its grip on large swathes of the country. The attack on the president’s motorcade is not just a message of defiance but a chilling demonstration of the group’s ability to strike at the heart of Somalia’s leadership.
President Hassan’s decision to return to the frontlines has been met with a mix of admiration and skepticism. Supporters argue that his presence is a morale booster for Somali forces and a signal of his commitment to defeating Al-Shabab.
However, critics see it as a calculated move to divert attention from a worsening political crisis and growing disputes over the country’s election model.
A History of Missteps
To understand the full context of this development, it is essential to examine the president’s previous forays into the battlefield and the outcomes of those efforts.
During the so-called first phase of anti-Al-Shabab operations, launched in 2022, President Hassan made a similar trip to the frontlines. At the time, the campaign was hailed as a turning point in the fight against the militants.
Government forces, supported by clan militias and international partners, launched offensives in the Galmudug and HirShabelle regions.
However, the operation fell short of its objectives. Despite initial gains, the campaign stalled due to logistical challenges, poor coordination, and Al-Shabab’s ability to regroup and counterattack.
Key areas remained under militant control, and the momentum of the offensive fizzled out. The failure to deliver tangible results during that phase has left many questioning the efficacy of the current strategy.
A Political Distraction?
The political backdrop to President Hassan’s latest move is equally troubling. Somalia is grappling with a deepening political crisis, fueled by disagreements over the electoral process. The president’s critics argue that his focus on the battlefield is a smokescreen to obscure his administration’s inability to address these internal divisions.
The dispute over the election model has pitted political elites against one another, threatening to unravel the fragile progress made in recent years. Against this backdrop, the president’s return to the frontlines appears to some as a desperate attempt to shift the narrative and rally public support.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabab’s recent territorial gains have heightened fears of a Taliban-style takeover. The group has capitalized on the government’s weaknesses, expanding its influence in rural areas and even making inroads into urban centers.
The parallels with the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan are hard to ignore, raising concerns about the potential collapse of Somalia’s fragile state institutions. Somali officials have dismissed these fears as “propaganda,” but the reality on the ground suggests otherwise.
Al-Shabab’s ability to fund its operations through taxation, extortion, and illicit trade has made it a formidable adversary, one that cannot be defeated through military means alone.
The international community, particularly Somalia’s key allies such as the United States, The United Kingdom, Turkey, European Union, and the African Union, has a critical role to play in supporting the country’s efforts to combat Al-Shabab. However, military assistance alone is not enough.
Addressing the root causes of extremism—poverty, corruption, and political exclusion—is essential to breaking the cycle of violence. Without a comprehensive strategy that combines security, governance, and development, the fight against Al-Shabab is doomed to fail.
What Lies Ahead?
President Hassan’s return to the frontlines is a high-stakes gamble. While it may temporarily boost morale and project an image of strong leadership, it does little to address the underlying challenges facing Somalia.
The president’s ability to navigate the country through its current crisis will depend on his willingness to confront both the militants and the political divisions that threaten to tear the nation apart. The Somali people, who have endured decades of conflict and instability, deserve more than symbolic gestures. They need a unified and effective leadership capable of delivering lasting peace and stability.
As the world watches, the stakes could not be higher. President Hassan’s legacy will be defined not by his presence on the battlefield but by his ability to steer Somalia toward a brighter future.
The question remains: Is this latest move a genuine effort to turn the tide against Al-Shabab, or is it a desperate attempt to cling to power in the face of mounting challenges? Only time will tell, but one thing is clear—the road ahead is fraught with peril.
The Writer is Abdirahman Jeylani Mohamed, a foreign policy journalist and communications specialist, based in Mogadishu Somalia | @JaylaaniJr (X formally Twitter).
