The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia is one of the most complex and contentious in the Horn of Africa. It is shaped by historical rivalries, political maneuvering, economic interests, and security concerns.
The question of whether Ethiopia is a friend or an enemy to Somalia does not have a simple answer. Instead, it requires an in-depth exploration of the historical context, recent developments, and future prospects for cooperation or conflict.
Historical Rivalries/Conflicts
Ethiopia and Somalia have a long history of animosity, dating back centuries to regional wars between Abyssinian and Somali kingdoms. This rivalry was exacerbated during the colonial era and later manifested in modern state conflicts, particularly in the 20th century.
The most notable confrontation was the Ogaden War of 1977-1978, in which Somalia, under President Siad Barre, attempted to reclaim the Somali-inhabited Ogaden region from Ethiopia. The war ended in Somalia’s defeat, further straining relations between the two neighbors.
Throughout the Cold War, Ethiopia and Somalia were often on opposing sides of global ideological divides, aligning with different superpowers at various times.
The collapse of the Somali state in 1991 led to increased Ethiopian involvement in Somali affairs, with Ethiopia frequently accused of meddling in Somalia’s internal politics to maintain influence and prevent the emergence of a strong Somali state that could challenge its territorial claims.
Ethiopia’s Role in Somalia
In the post-9/11 world, Ethiopia has played a significant role in Somalia’s security landscape. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which had briefly established authority over large parts of the country.
While Ethiopia justified the intervention as part of its counterterrorism efforts, many Somalis saw it as an act of aggression and occupation. The Ethiopian military presence sparked widespread resistance, eventually leading to their withdrawal in 2009.
Despite this, Ethiopia has remained actively involved in Somali politics, supporting various factions and maintaining a strong intelligence presence.
Ethiopian troops continue to operate in Somalia under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), albeit with allegations that they often act in their own national interests rather than purely in support of Somali stability.
The recent diplomatic tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, particularly over Ethiopia’s growing ties with Somaliland, have reignited Somali suspicions about Ethiopian intentions.
Ethiopia’s push for access to the Red Sea has led it to seek port agreements with Somaliland, a move seen by Mogadishu as undermining Somali sovereignty.
Economic Interdependence
Despite their fraught political relationship, Ethiopia and Somalia share deep economic ties. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, relies on Somali ports for trade.
The Port of Berbera in Somaliland has been a key transit point for Ethiopian goods, and Somalia has the potential to further develop its coastal infrastructure to facilitate Ethiopian access to maritime trade.
Trade and people-to-people interactions remain strong. Thousands of Somalis live and work in Ethiopia, particularly in regions like the Somali Regional State, while Ethiopian businesses operate in Somali markets.
Enhanced economic cooperation could serve as a stabilizing factor in bilateral relations, but this requires mutual trust and diplomatic engagement.
Current Diplomatic Crisis
Ethiopia’s recent outreach to Somaliland has caused a serious diplomatic crisis with the Somali government. Somalia has formally protested Ethiopia’s actions, viewing them as an attempt to weaken Somalia’s territorial integrity.
If Ethiopia continues to disregard Somali sovereignty, it risks deepening hostility and further destabilizing the region. For Ethiopia to be seen as a true friend rather than a foe, it must respect Somalia’s sovereignty and engage in diplomatic dialogue.
Cooperation on security, trade, and infrastructure development could benefit both nations. However, this will only be possible if Ethiopia refrains from actions that are perceived as interference or aggression.
A Relationship in Flux
Ethiopia’s role in Somalia is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it is a critical security and trade partner. On the other hand, its historical interventions, political meddling, and territorial ambitions have made it a source of mistrust.
Whether Ethiopia is a friend or an enemy of Somalia ultimately depends on its future actions. If Ethiopia chooses diplomacy and respect for Somali sovereignty, the two nations can move towards a mutually beneficial partnership. If it continues to pursue self-serving policies at Somalia’s expense, then it will remain an adversary in the eyes of many Somalis.
Somalia must also play its part by strengthening its state institutions, asserting its sovereignty through diplomacy, and fostering economic resilience to reduce dependence on external actors.
Only through mutual respect and cooperation can Somalia and Ethiopia escape the cycle of conflict and build a future of stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa.
HORN LIFE
